Cabal Online Background
Nipperlug

Chaos Upgrade Calculator

A Cabal Online calculator that estimates resource cost and success chances for upgrading Arcanas, Chaos Belts, Carnelians. It also recommends an optimal upgrade path (how many upgrade points to use per attempt) based on your entered prices.

Beta: This calculator is still being validated for math accuracy and server-specific assumptions. Treat outputs as estimates.
How to Use This Calculator:

Pick your chaos item type and start/target levels, then (optional) enter prices for Chaos Cores, Chaos Safeguards, and Upgrade Points so the optimizer can compare costs. Specific safeguards are tied to the item type and usually require higher quantities per attempt; generic safeguards work on any chaos item and always use 1 per attempt. Safeguards are assumed to be used from +1 to +14 (no downgrade or destruction), and are disabled from +15 onward with a floor at +15. In the Upgrade Points Cost section, enter the cost for a points amount (e.g., 1,000 points). The optimizer will only recommend upgrade point amounts in multiples of that points amount (1,000, 2,000, 3,000, etc.).

Chaos CorePrice per Chaos Core in Alz. Used in cost totals.
Price in Alz
Safeguard SettingsChoose safeguard mode and set its price. Specific uses item-specific quantities, Generic uses one safeguard per attempt.
Chaos Safeguard (Generic)
Price in Alz
Upgrade Points CostSet the Alz cost for a given amount of Upgrade Points (for example, 1,000 points).
Cost (Alz)
Points Amount
Initial Item CostOne-time price for the base item you start upgrading (for example your belt or carnelian).
Added once to total cost
Max Upgrade PointsMaximum upgrade points allowed on a single attempt. Larger values allow more options but increase compute time.
Upper Bound Confidence (%)Percentile for upper-bound summaries. Example: 90 means there is a 90% chance totals are this value or lower.
SimulationsNumber of Monte Carlo runs used for upper-bound estimates. More simulations improve stability but increase calculation time.
Min 1,000. Higher values are more stable but slower.

Summary Section

Calculations are paused. Click to run the optimizer.
Avg. Attempts
0
Avg. Chaos Cores
0
Avg. Safeguards
0
Avg. Upgrade Points Purchased
0

Per-Level Breakdown

UpgradeSuccessDown 0Down -1Down -2Down -3Cores/AttemptSafeguards/AttemptRec. Upgrade Points / AttemptExpected AttemptsEffective Success
+0 → +1100%0%0%0%0%1000.00.00%
+1 → +295%0%0%0%0%1100.00.00%
+2 → +390%0%0%0%0%1100.00.00%
+3 → +475%0%0%0%0%2100.00.00%
+4 → +565%0%0%0%0%2100.00.00%
+5 → +660%0%0%0%0%2100.00.00%
+6 → +740%0%0%0%0%3100.00.00%
+7 → +840%0%0%0%0%3100.00.00%
+8 → +930%0%0%0%0%3100.00.00%
+9 → +1030%0%0%0%0%4100.00.00%
+10 → +1130%0%0%0%0%4100.00.00%
+11 → +1230%0%0%0%0%4100.00.00%
+12 → +1330%0%0%0%0%5100.00.00%
+13 → +1430%0%0%0%0%5100.00.00%
+14 → +1530%0%0%0%0%5100.00.00%
+15 → +1612%88%0%0%0%20000.00.00%
+16 → +1710%15%75%0%0%30000.00.00%
+17 → +188%13%44%35%0%40000.00.00%
+18 → +196%11%28.00%35%20%50000.00.00%
+19 → +204%9%27%35%25%60000.00.00%
Column guide: Success is the base upgrade chance for that level, Down 0 is the fail-without-downgrade chance, Down -1/-2/-3 are the downgrade chances, Cores/Attempt and Safeguards/Attempt are the materials consumed per click, Rec. Upgrade Points / Attempt is the optimizer’s suggested points to add when you start an attempt at 0 points, Expected Attempts is the average number of attempts spent at that level during the full run, and Effective Success is expected successes divided by expected attempts for that level.